2009 the Year of Doom for Somali TFG

The Somali Transitional Federal Government will see great unfortunate sudden hardship killing any hope of its survival in the coming year where it may seize to exist within a few months into year 2009. As a result of Ethiopia's departure, change in the U.S. outlook of East Africa's geopolitical war, change in TFG leadership as Abdullahi Yusuf goes back to Puntland, - a semi-autonomous state known to interfere any Somali political progress, and the popularity of the strengthening Islamic resistance, the TFG is doomed with eventual downfall.

Although it is unlikely, the Somali TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is expected to give his resignation in front of the parliament in the coming days. This is to take place during his impeachment hearing for impeding the Somali peace process between TFG and its foe, the Islamic resistance fighters, and to answer questions about the political turmoil he single handedly created for his fellow TFG officials when he unilaterally fired the TFG Prime Minister and appointed a new one in just two days. The parliament already voted for Sheik Adan Mohamed Madoobe as the acting president, in case Yusuf refused to attend an impeachment session. Sources close to the President were quoted saying that Abdullahi Yusuf will leave office, a claim which the Somali TFG President clearly denied later.

Regardless of the Somali TFG President's denial of permanent leave of the Presidency, Somalis expect him to give way to others, hoping someone more useful to the Somali people will take his place. The Somali public's expectations are strengthened by the popular calls for Mr. Yusuf's resignation as when the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, mounted Washington's pressure on the Somali president calling on him to leave office.

Abdullahi Yusuf, the Somali Transition Federal Government's warlord President had his fate coming. Earlier this month, Mr. Yusuf was criticized for arming his native clan Majeerteen with TFG weapons. This act enforces the tribalism agenda of the, commonly known as warlord, President already made obvious by assigning the most of top TFG ministerial positions to Majeerteen members of the government. Nonetheless, he is well prepared for the departure of the Presidential seat planning on going back to the semi autonomous district of Puntland where he is the head of state. Thereafter, he will undoubtedly continue to do all he can to stop the TFG from signing any peace deals with the opposition, or to make any positive progress in any political or developmental direction as he will no longer be part of it.

Although many Somalis see the arming of the Majeerteen clan by Abdullahi Yusuf as an act of preparation for his departure, it can viewed as the building blocks of another resistance for the TFG. One must remember Mr. Yusuf, with the help of Ethiopian government, obstructed any viable progress for the former Transitional government of Abdilqasim Salad Hasan, with their elaborate impediment. While Mr. Hasan's government was in place, the two an other influential parties - such us the European Union and African Union, initiated a negotiation for all the Somali warlords to form another government on top the then existing one. From the start of Mr. Hasan's Transitional Government, Mr. Yusuf and other then prominent warlords were the key factors that hampered its development progress. Once he is no longer part of the current government, Mr. Yusuf will again be a barrier the current Somali TFG have to overcome.

Another predominant barrier the TFG cannot overcome the current Islamic resistance conducting daily attacks on TFG and its support force, the Ethiopian army. Numerous reports indicate Ethiopian invasion will end soon. This will definitely be a blow to the TFG's stability. Up until now, the TFG's security depended on the Ethiopian army in Somalia to defend them from Al-Shabab and other Islamic fighters who now control most of Somalia except Baidoa and some parts of Mogadishu. It is expected that the Tigres' departure will create an easy passage for the resistance to take control of Mogadishu and Baidoa disbursing the TFG politicians who clearly cannot defend themselves on their own. In the following weeks after the Ethiopians vacate Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government will be reduced to many different warlords scattered around the country, with each of them running back to his clan base for security.

Security is one issue the TFG can no longer take for granted, as it will lose two of their major supporting allies, the Ethiopian army and the African Union forces. It is reported that the AU will follow the Tigres in taking their troops back home emphasizing the sudden disclosure of their plan by the Ethiopian dictator Melez Zenawi earlier this month. This spells disaster and state of emergency as hell will break lose on TFG militia positions with no apparent backing from any viable force. As one can expect, the Islamic resistance fighters will surely run over any remaining government troops, -where the clan based TFG militia --they are mainly from the Majeerteen clan armed by Abdullahi Yusuf himself, will evaporate into thin air running in all directions of the country to save their lives.

Unfortunately for the Somali Transitional Government, more bad news will come when the new United States administration takes office. The new Obama government in the U.S.A has clear intentions to withdraw the majority of their military resources from foreign lands in order to concentrate on Afghanistan. Mr. Obama made it clear his troops will leave Iraq in less than two years. Although he had not publicized, one can figure he is not interested in mingling with Somali war affairs, and therefore one should expect any U.S. financial backing of its invasion or geopolitical influence to be seized. This may already have prompted Melez Zenawi to drop all operations in Somalia sensing there will no longer be any incentives for him.

In conclusion, the Somali Transitional Federal Government is in deep trouble and may seize to exist within a few months into year 2009. Its downfall will be accommodated by new resistive forces in the form of their leader, lack of financial assistance by Europeans and Americans, and inadequate military backing by either their own army or outside foreign interference. Most of all, the TFG's future looks dim because of the rise and popularity of the Islamic resistance destined to replace it.